Oscars
Oscars Prediction Post: Matt Dy
For football fans, the Super Bowl may be over but for me, mine hasn’t started yet. This Sunday is the Academy Awards and the only playbook in sight is the one Harvey Weinstein is pushing hard for. Will it be Silver Lining’s night or Argo’s? This has been the most unpredictable and surprising race in years featuring a stellar line-up of nominees. AFF …
For football fans, the Super Bowl may be over but for me, mine hasn’t started yet. This Sunday is the Academy Awards and the only playbook in sight is the one Harvey Weinstein is pushing hard for. Will it be Silver Lining’s night or Argo’s? This has been the most unpredictable and surprising race in years featuring a stellar line-up of nominees. AFF is represented well here as our 2012 festival line-up included Silver Linings Playbook, Flight, The Sessions, and short film nominees Asad, Buzkashi Boys, and Head Over Heals. I’ve included my predictions below in all 24 categories. I’ll start off with an analysis of my two favorite categories, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay. Click on each of the titles to download the PDF of the script (Lincoln is not available).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo by Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi by David Magee
Lincoln by Tony Kushner
Predicted winner: Argo
Chris Terrio’s tight script never lags and does a phenomenal job of keeping the audience in suspense despite already knowing the outcome. And with tons of smart, funny one-liners, Chris Terrio could be telling the other nominees “Argof*ckyourself” on Sunday. Tony Kushner has enough respectability in the industry to pull off a win but I think Argo will continue its winning streak here.
Best Original Screenplay
Amour by Michael Haneke
Django Unchained by Quentin Tarantino
Flight by John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty by Mark Boal
Predicted winner: Django Unchained
Quentin Tarantino has already won some key awards so far for original screenplay so I’d say he’s the favorite. I’m sure some residual love from Inglorious Basterds and the box office success of Django can’t hurt either. Mark Boal did win the WGA award but Tarantino wasn’t eligible for a nomination and Michael Haneke could surprise here too.
And here is the full list of my predictions:
Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio – Argo
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Hair & Makeup: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Editing: Argo
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Animated Feature: Brave
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Live Action Short: Curfew
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Documentary Short: Open Heart
Check back after the show on Sunday and see how I did!
–Matt Dy, Screenplay & Teleplay Competition Director
If you think you have what it takes to correctly predict the Oscar winners, take a chance at our Oscars Prediction Contest and you could win a Producers Badge or a Film Pass to the 2013 Austin Film Festival! For more information, click here.
Enter AFF’s Oscar Prediction Contest!
You’ve seen all the films, you’ve picked your favorites, and now you’re ready to make your predictions. Try your luck at predicting the 85th Annual Academy Award® winners with AFF’s Oscar Prediction Contest! Austin Film Festival is the place to get your Oscars fix in October. Past panelists include Academy Award® Winners Ron Howard, Oliver Stone (pictured right), Sydney Pollack and more! The top five …
You’ve seen all the films, you’ve picked your favorites, and now you’re ready to make your predictions.
Try your luck at predicting the 85th Annual Academy Award® winners with AFF’s Oscar Prediction Contest! Austin Film Festival is the place to get your Oscars fix in October. Past panelists include Academy Award® Winners Ron Howard, Oliver Stone (pictured right), Sydney Pollack and more! The top five entrants who most closely predict the winners of the categories below will each win one Film Pass to the 2013 Austin Film Festival. All contest entrants will be entered in a drawing to win a Grand Prize of one Producers Badge for the 2013 Austin Film Festival! The contest is open as of Wednesday, February 06, 2013 and will close at the start of the Academy Awards® telecast on February 24th at 7pm eastern time | 4pm pacific time. Ballots limited to one entry per person, many will enter, six will win, see below for full rules and regulations.
The Contest has now closed!
No purchase necessary to enter or win AFF’s Oscar Prediction Contest. Entry into this Contest constitutes your acceptance of these Official Rules:
Contest start date and time and end date and time as outlined in AFF Blog post “Enter AFF’s Oscar Prediction Contest!”
Contest is open worldwide to anyone with a valid email address. When entering the Contest, an opportunity to sign up to receive follow-up information from Austin Film Festival may be available. Entrants subject to all notices posted online including but not limited to Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Employees or those living in the same household of Austin Film Festival and their respective parents, affiliates, prize suppliers, and advertising and promotion agencies are not eligible to enter or win. Entrants may need to provide further contact information upon request.
To enter, entrants must fill out entire ballot as provided above along with first and last name, email address, and agree to Austin Film Festivals Terms and Condition as outlined here. All entries must be received by date and time outlined in “Enter AFf’s Oscar Prediction Contest!”. For purposes of these Official Rules, “receipt” of Entry occurs when Austin Film Festival’s servers record the Entry information resulting from contestants’ entry being received in the inbox area. Any automated computer receipt (such as one confirming delivery of email) does not constitute proof of actual receipt by Austin Film Festival for purposes of these Official Rules.
Austin Film Festival reserves the right to disqualify any Entry for any reason, in its sole and absolute discretion.
Top 5 Entries will be judged based on proximity to actual 85th Academy Awards® winners. The top scoring Entries will be declared the Contest winner (“Winner”)Grand Prize winner will be judged based on randomly generated calculation. All Entrants are eligible for Grand Prize.Only one entry per person, duplicate entries will not be counted. In the event of a tie for the Top 5 Entries, winners will be chosen based on timing of entry.
Winners will be determined after the Contest’s end date and will be notified by email. Winners will be required to provide mailing address which will be used to fulfill the prize. At the discretion of the Austin Film Festival, Winner may be disqualified for any of the following reasons: not eligible based on the eligibility requirements set forth above. In the event it is determined within the specified time period, has made false statements or a prize notification is returned as undeliverable, then the Winner will be disqualified at Austin Film Festival’s sole discretion, the Entry with the next highest score may then be declared the alternate Winner.
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AFF at the Oscars
There were a lot of proud faces on television screens around the world Sunday night, as the Academy Awards presented their annual prizes to a few lucky filmmakers. In fact, anyone who played a part in the triumph of an Oscar-winning film had reason to be proud, particularly those involved with the Best Picture winner, “The Artist.” Originally screened at Cannes, this little black-and-white silent …
There were a lot of proud faces on television screens around the world Sunday night, as the Academy Awards presented their annual prizes to a few lucky filmmakers. In fact, anyone who played a part in the triumph of an Oscar-winning film had reason to be proud, particularly those involved with the Best Picture winner, “The Artist.” Originally screened at Cannes, this little black-and-white silent French film that initially scared away distributors eventually charmed the world, taking home 5 Oscars by the end of the evening. The thought of marketing a film like “The Artist” was naturally a concern for all involved, including festivals like AFF.
Nothing brings the staff of a film festival greater joy than seeing one of its programmed films going on to conquer the hearts and minds of moviegoers everywhere. We were also so pleased to see “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore,” which won both our Jury and our Audience Award for Best Animated Short, go on to win the Oscar in that category. I can remember the day that my fellow film programmer, Stephen Belyeu, and I watched that film for the first time. We both knew we had just seen something very special, and we were so honored to introduce it to our festival audience and the Austin moviegoing community at large. Those are the moments that make this job so rewarding, and we can’t wait to do it all over again this October. Here’s to another year at the movies!
What I Learned From the Oscars
Even with some last minute changes to the predictions I initially posted, I still ended up predicting only 17 out of 24 categories last night. Not my best by any means but alas, there’s always next year when the Dark Knight Rises will sweep the 2013 Oscars (one can still dream I guess). It’s funny how obvious the outcome seems now in retrospect. In this …
Even with some last minute changes to the predictions I initially posted, I still ended up predicting only 17 out of 24 categories last night. Not my best by any means but alas, there’s always next year when the Dark Knight Rises will sweep the 2013 Oscars (one can still dream I guess). It’s funny how obvious the outcome seems now in retrospect. In this age of blogging, anyone can be an Oscar expert but the only ones who truly know the outcome in advance is PricewaterhouseCoopers. Nobody knows anything and the best method to playing this game is to not over think it. So instead of moping over how bad I did this year, I’ll reflect on what I learned from watching the Oscars:- I realized I was born the same year Meryl Streep won her last Oscar for Sophie’s Choice. I can’t wait to see her win another 29 years later when she won’t need makeup to play Margaret Thatcher again in The Iron Lady 2.
- The telecast was rather dull and I wonder what Eddie Murphy would have brought to the show if he had hosted. Heck, Ellen DeGeneres’ JC Penney commercials were considerably funnier.
- I did not realize Twilight belonged in the pantheon of great movie moments.
- Comedic anecdotes from presenters are almost never funny unless you can speak Mandarin like Sandra Bullock, or your names are Will Ferrell and Mack Zalifigakas.
- My thoughts from watching the In Memoriam montage: “All those people are dead???”
- I would like to play a drinking game with the Bridesmaids. “Scorsese!”
- Viola Davis is gorgeous. I’ll predict she’ll win an Oscar in the future or at least end up on Joan Rivers’ best dressed list.
- Never underestimate the power of Harvey Weinstein. Three of his films won Oscars (The Artist, The Iron Lady, and Undefeated)
- The Academy really needs to reevaluate its voting process for Best Original Song. Only two nominees this year? And it was a crime The Muppets didn’t get to perform the winning song, “Man or Muppet”!
- Christopher Plummer is just two years younger than the Academy Awards?
- Billy Crystal can read minds. I’m glad we all finally know what goes on in Marty Scorsese’s and Nick Nolte’s heads. AND…
- I need to stop obsessing over the Oscars and get back to writing my script!
–Matt Dy, Screenplay & Teleplay Competition Director
Live Blogging: The Oscars!
Taylor here, AFF Marketing Director. Welcome to the Austin Film Festival’s live blogging of the 84th annual Academy Awards. Stick around for updates throughout the evening! 7:25pm CST 5 minutes ’til show time! Is is just me or does one of the commentators look like a mini Steve Martin Scorsese? 7:32pm CST Two minutes in and we start the show with a George-on-Billy liplock. 7:36pm CST …
Taylor here, AFF Marketing Director. Welcome to the Austin Film Festival’s live blogging of the 84th annual Academy Awards. Stick around for updates throughout the evening!
7:25pm CST
5 minutes ’til show time! Is is just me or does one of the commentators look like a mini Steve Martin Scorsese?
7:32pm CST
Two minutes in and we start the show with a George-on-Billy liplock.
7:36pm CST
First film mentioned: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Want a chance to own a signed script of the film? Get your Producers Badge before the end of February and you’ll be entered to win one of two copies!
7:38pm CST
Bill Crystal’s first musical number.
7:43pm CST
First award!
Best Cinematography: Robert Richardson – Hugo
7:45pm CST
Best Art Direction: Hugo
7:55pm CST
Best Costume Design: The Artist – Mark Bridges
7:56pm CST
Makeup: The Iron Lady
8:07pm CST
Foreign Language Film: A Separation
8:10pm CST
Best Actress In a Supporting Role: Octavia Spencer, The Help
So far, Matt Dy’s been pretty on point with his predictions!
8:19pm CST
Christopher Guest’s cast acts as focus group for Wizard of Oz! Hilarious!
8:22pm CST
Film Editing: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Now that signed script of GIRL we have is an OSCAR WINNING SCRIPT! Wanna a shot at winning it? Get your Producers Badge by Feb 29th.
8:26pm CST
Sound Editing: Hugo
Sound Mixing: Hugo
8:36pm CST
North by Northwest Peewee Herman lookalikes are bungee jumping around the Kodak Theater.
8:43pm CST
Best Documentary Feature: Undefeated
8:47pm CST
Best Animated Feature: Rango
8:53pm CST
Emma Stone is winning best dressed so far, in my humble opinion. Plus, she’s hilarious.
8:55pm CST
Visual Effects: Hugo
8:58pm CST
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Oscar speech so far.
9:12pm CST
Original Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
9:17pm CST
Best Original Song: “Man or Muppet”, by Bret Mckenzie of Flight of the Conchords!
9:27pm CST
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, The Descendants
9:30pm CST
Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
9:40pm CST
Best Live-Action Short Film: The Shore
9:42pm CST
Best Documentary Short: Saving Face
9:48pm CST
Best Animated Short-The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore! Congrats to this AFF 2011 Jury Award AND Audience Award Winner!
9:53pm CST
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
10:18pm CST
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
10:30pm CST
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
10:35pm CST
Best Motion Picture: The Artist, 2011 AFF Audience Award Winner!
Thanks for following my live blogging! If you want a chance to win a piece of Oscar history, buy your Producers Badge before the end of February to be entered to win one of three screenplays of 2012 Academy Award nominated films.
And everyone who buys any Badge type before the end of February to be entered to win a Producers Badge.
Final Oscar Predictions
Will The Artist sweep the Oscars? Will Meryl Streep FINALLY win a long overdue second Oscar for lead actress? All will be answered this Sunday night when the awards will be handed out. The real question is… will people really care? Compared to last year, most of the films nominated this year haven’t really polarized the general public as much while the current frontrunner is …
Will The Artist sweep the Oscars? Will Meryl Streep FINALLY win a long overdue second Oscar for lead actress? All will be answered this Sunday night when the awards will be handed out. The real question is… will people really care? Compared to last year, most of the films nominated this year haven’t really polarized the general public as much while the current frontrunner is a black and white silent film most are hesitant to see at first. Regardless, I’m still a faithful Oscar watcher and prognosticator (read my post from Feb 1) and I’ll still make my annual predictions. Here’s who I think will win in all 24 categories.And… to make a shameless plug, we have a special promotion in honor of the Oscars. Anyone who purchases a Producers Badge to the 2012 Austin Film Festival & Conference by Sunday, February 26th will be entered for a chance to win a copy of the screenplay of THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, signed by Academy Award®-winning writer Steven Zaillian!
Zaillian, who was awarded with the Distinguished Screenwriter Award at the 2009 Austin Film Festival, wrote both THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO and MONEYBALL, each earning a handful of Oscar nominations.
And everyone who has purchased a Conference Badge or below by February 26th will be entered in a raffle to win an upgrade to a Producers Badge! Click here to buy your Badge.
–Matt Dy, Screenplay & Teleplay Competition Director
My Super Bowl
A friend recently asked mewho I think will win the Super Bowl. Myresponse was: “The Super Bowl? It’s thisSunday? Are the Cowboys playing?” Obviously, I am not planning to watch thegame on Sunday (although I heard Madonna will be performing). Lately, my focus has been diverted to my ownversion of the Super Bowl: the Oscars. Some guys are into fantasy football; I’m into predicting the Oscars. …
A friend recently asked mewho I think will win the Super Bowl. Myresponse was: “The Super Bowl? It’s thisSunday? Are the Cowboys playing?” Obviously, I am not planning to watch thegame on Sunday (although I heard Madonna will be performing). Lately, my focus has been diverted to my ownversion of the Super Bowl: the Oscars. Some guys are into fantasy football; I’m into predicting the Oscars.Why the Awards Season Really Does Matter
The cinematic juggernaut that is The Artist continued steamrolling toward the Best Picture Oscar with several wins at the Golden Globes this past Sunday.Not too shabby for a black-and-white silent film from France that initially scared away several distributors before being picked up by The Weinstein Company.Anyone who has seen the film would say that these awards have been justly earned based on …
The cinematic juggernaut that is The Artist continued steamrolling toward the Best Picture Oscar with several wins at the Golden Globes this past Sunday.Not too shabby for a black-and-white silent film from France that initially scared away several distributors before being picked up by The Weinstein Company.Anyone who has seen the film would say that these awards have been justly earned based on the film’s quality, and they would be correct.The Artist is an absolute delight.However, that doesn’t stop industry cynics from crediting this silent film’s accolades to one of the most aggressive campaigners in the history of awards, Harvey Weinstein, who is anything but silent.
The validity of film awards has increasingly come under question over the years, and the lengths to which awards campaigners will go to win awards for their films are the stuff of legend.Listen to rumors and hearsay, and you’d think that Weinstein stops just shy of threatening murder to get his films the recognition they deserve, which leads many to believe that these awards are meritless and unimportant.But I’d like to take this opportunity to make a bold statement: They’re wrong.
Ask any filmmaker or production studio, “Who do you want in your corner come Oscar season?” and you’ll more than likely hear them say Harvey Weinstein’s name.That’s because they recognize how important these awards truly are.The value of having “Academy Award Winner” stamped on a DVD cover is immeasurable; in fact, it is almost required if an independent or foreign film hopes to sell any copies at the local Target.That’s because, for the average moviegoer, the Oscars provide a quick summary of the best (well, one version of the best) films in a given year, films that an average moviegoer may not have had access to in their local movie theater.
I can speak to this issue from a personal angle.As a young film lover growing up in small-town Texas, my first chance at seeing a film like The Artist would’ve been home video.Films that run for weeks in LA or NYC cinemas never make it as far as Southeast Texas, so I used award nominations and critics lists as a guide to what I should look for at my local movie rental.Although the circumstances have changed a bit (rentals have given way to iTunes and Netflix), the basic facts are still the same: many great films don’t reach a broader audience until after they leave the cinema.That’s why these films need the awards season, and that’s why we need it, too.
– Stephen Jannise, Film Program Director

